On-Chain Analytics

Supply in Profit and Loss

Supply in profit and supply in loss split the unspent supply by whether each coin's cost basis is below or above the current price. The split is offered as a measure of how many holders are underwater. It rests on a cost basis the ledger does not record directly, so it is a construction rather than a measurement.

Last reviewed 2026-09-21Source: Glassnode supply in profit/loss methodology; Bitcoin Core UTXO setNo figure is quoted here. The split depends on a price series and on a definition of which outputs count.

Written by: The Bitcoin Data Guide editorial team
Reviewed by: Data review desk
Dates: Published 2026-09-21 · Last reviewed 2026-09-21

Fact

For each unspent output the ledger records when it last moved, and a price series supplies the market price at that moment and at the present.

Forecast

Reading a large supply in loss as capitulation pressure, or a large supply in profit as distribution risk, is an interpretation of holder intent that the split alone does not establish.

The definition

Each unspent output carries the moment it last moved, and a price series supplies the market price at that moment. Comparing that price with the current price places the output in one of two groups: in profit if the current price is higher, in loss if it is lower. Summing the coins in each group gives the supply in profit and the supply in loss.

The measures are usually presented as a share of the total supply, so the two add to one. A high share in profit is offered as evidence that most holders are sitting on gains; a high share in loss is offered as evidence that most are underwater. The share in loss is often read as a measure of capitulation pressure.

The split is a construction. It depends on a price series for the moment each output moved, on a definition of which outputs count, and on the assumption that the entity which received an output is the entity that still controls it.

What is observed and what is inferred

What the ledger directly records is the creation and the spend of each output and the quantity of coins in it. The split adds a price for the moment each output last moved, taken from a price series, and the current price. That places each output on one side of the line.

The inference is the step from "this coin's cost basis is above the current price" to "its holder is underwater and may sell". The ledger records the price at which a coin moved and not the intention of the person holding it. A coin in loss may be held patiently, may be lost, or may belong to a holder who has not looked at the price at all.

The split is therefore a statement about the relationship between the current price and the cost basis embedded in the supply, given the price series used. It is a construction, and it is an inference about holder behaviour rather than a direct observation of it.

The assumptions it depends on

The split depends on a price series for the moment each output moved, and the choice of series matters. It also depends on a definition of which outputs count and on how coins that are provably lost are treated: a lost coin has a cost basis but no holder, and whether it belongs in the split is a definitional choice. Different providers make different choices, so two splits can differ without either being wrong.

Where the split is computed per entity, it depends on address clustering and entity labelling. Clustering decides which addresses belong to the same owner using heuristics about how wallets construct transactions, and labelling attaches a name to a cluster. Both are inferences, and a mislabel propagates into the split.

The most common distortion is internal shuffling. When an exchange moves coins between its own wallets, the outputs are spent and recreated, and their cost basis is reset to the current price even though no economic transfer occurred. A large reshuffle can move the split without any change in holder behaviour. The realised capitalisation page sets out the cost-basis construction in full, and the limits of blockchain analysis page explains why a cluster is an inference rather than a fact.

Sources and references

The description of the split and its construction is taken from the published methodology of the providers that compute it, and from the ledger structure it reads.

The split and its methodology. Glassnode, Supply in Profit and Loss: documents the cost-basis comparison and the output treatment.
The output model the split reads. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Developer Guide — Transactions: describes how outputs are created and spent.
The attribution assumptions behind ledger metrics. Meiklejohn et al., A Fistful of Bitcoins: characterises the clustering assumptions that entity-level metrics depend on.

Sources

Glassnode supply in profit/loss methodology: Documents the cost-basis comparison and the treatment of unspent outputs.
Bitcoin Developer Guide — Transactions: Describes how outputs are created and spent, which is what the split reads.
A Fistful of Bitcoins: Characterises the address clustering and attribution assumptions that ledger metrics depend on.