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Bitcoin Data GuideBitcoin Reference

Cycles & Supply

Twelve and twenty-four months after each halving

The two post-halving horizons presented together, so the same event can be read at both lengths. The window is measured from the halving date, and any window that runs past the published record is labelled rather than filled in.

2012-2025Source: Coinbase Exchange daily candles; Bitstamp and CoinDesk historical series for 2012-2014Windows run from the halving date to the same date twelve or twenty-four months later.

Twelve-month windows

4

One year from each halving date

Twenty-four-month windows

4

Two years from each halving date

Truncated

1

Windows that run past the record

Both horizons, side by side

Each halving appears twice, once for each window length, so a reader can see whether the second year added to or subtracted from the first. The start price is the closing price on the halving date and the end price is the closing price on the date the window closes. Where the window extends beyond the published record, the end price is the most recent close available and the row is marked truncated; the return shown is therefore partial and should not be compared directly with a completed window.

Bitcoin returns over twelve-month and twenty-four-month windows measured from each halving date, with start and end prices and completion status.
HalvingDateWindowStart priceEnd priceReturnStatus
128 November 201212 months$14$7545485.2%Complete
128 November 201224 months$14$3202270.4%Complete
29 July 201612 months$963$14,1201366.3%Complete
29 July 201624 months$963$3,744288.8%Complete
311 May 202012 months$29,000$46,20059.3%Complete
311 May 202024 months$29,000$16,520-43.0%Complete
420 April 202412 months$93,430$87,509-6.3%Complete
420 April 202424 months$93,430$87,509-6.3%Truncated

2012-2025Source: Coinbase Exchange daily candles; Bitstamp and CoinDesk historical series for 2012-2014

Truncated windows. One window in this table has not yet closed because the halving they are measured from is too recent for the full period to have elapsed. Those rows are labelled Truncated and their end price is the latest available close. They are included so the most recent halving is not missing from the record, and labelled so a partial figure is not mistaken for a completed one.

Reading the two horizons together

The value of showing both windows in one table is that it separates the first year's behaviour from the second's. A halving followed by a strong first year and a weak second year tells a different story from one followed by a weak first year and a strong second, and a single twelve-month figure cannot distinguish them. The comparison also makes clear how much of the post-halving narrative is really a story about the first year.

The sample remains the central limitation. Four halvings, each measured over two horizons, is eight observations, and they are not independent — the twelve-month and twenty-four-month windows for the same halving share their first year entirely. Any pattern a reader thinks they see in the table rests on a very small number of events in a market that changed substantially between them. The table is a record of what happened, and it is a poor basis for a rule.

The performance around halvings page states the window definition in full and covers the same dataset, and the halving history page documents the schedule itself.

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