Returns & Performance
Bitcoin's returns in constant dollars
2010-2025Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), annual average, all items; Coinbase Exchange daily candles; Bitstamp and CoinDesk historical series for 2010-2014The deflator is the US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), annual average, all items, with 2025 as the base year. Each year-end nominal close is divided by that year's index level and multiplied by the base-year level, so every point is expressed in 2025 dollars. The index levels are annual averages while the prices are year-end closes, which introduces a small timing mismatch within each year; the effect is immaterial at the precision published here. The 2010-2024 levels are the published BLS annual averages rounded to the nearest whole index point; the 2025 level is a provisional estimate because the BLS annual average for 2025 had not been published at the time of compilation, and it is the base year, so it cancels out of every ratio and does not affect the real return or real CAGR. The real return and real CAGR are computed from the first and last points of the adjusted series. The index is a national average and does not reflect any individual's inflation experience.
Base year
2025
Real prices are stated in this year's dollars
Total real return
0%
2010 to 2025
Real annualised
0.0%
Compound rate after inflation
Nominal and real prices, year by year
The nominal column is the year-end closing price as published. The deflator column is the cumulative factor applied to restate that price in the base year's dollars, expressed as a percentage. The real column is the result. The final column shows how much of the nominal figure is accounted for by the change in the price level rather than by a change in Bitcoin's purchasing power — a small number in the early years, when the deflator is close to one, and a larger one later.
| Year | Nominal price | Deflator | Real price | Nominal vs real |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $0 | 67.7% | $0 | -46.7% |
| 2011 | $5 | 69.9% | $7 | -43.0% |
| 2012 | $14 | 71.1% | $19 | -40.6% |
| 2013 | $754 | 72.4% | $1,042 | -38.2% |
| 2014 | $320 | 73.6% | $435 | -35.9% |
| 2015 | $430 | 73.6% | $584 | -35.9% |
| 2016 | $963 | 74.5% | $1,292 | -34.2% |
| 2017 | $14,120 | 76.1% | $18,558 | -31.4% |
| 2018 | $3,744 | 78.0% | $4,803 | -28.3% |
| 2019 | $7,195 | 79.5% | $9,050 | -25.8% |
| 2020 | $29,000 | 80.4% | $36,054 | -24.3% |
| 2021 | $46,200 | 84.2% | $54,894 | -18.8% |
| 2022 | $16,520 | 91.0% | $18,155 | -9.9% |
| 2023 | $42,260 | 94.7% | $44,615 | -5.6% |
| 2024 | $93,430 | 97.5% | $95,810 | -2.5% |
| 2025 | $87,509 | 100.0% | $87,509 | 0.0% |
The deflator and its vintage. US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), annual average, all items is used to restate each year-end price in 2025 dollars. The index is published monthly and revised, so the figures here carry the vintage stated in the provenance line above. The most recent year in the series is provisional: the deflator for it is not yet final and will be revised, which means the real price shown for that year may move slightly even though the nominal price will not. Earlier years are settled.
Why the distinction matters
Every price quoted in a market is a nominal price. It is the number of currency units exchanged, and it says nothing about what those units could buy. Over a single year the difference is negligible. Over a decade it is not. A price that doubles over ten years while the price level rises by a third has grown in real terms by roughly half, not by double. For an asset whose whole investment case rests on preserving purchasing power, the real figure is the one that answers the question the holder is actually asking.
Bitcoin's real record is still remarkable, and that is worth stating plainly because the adjustment is sometimes presented as though it were a debunking. Deflating the series reduces the headline numbers without changing their direction. The real annualised rate is lower than the nominal one and still very high by the standards of any conventional asset. What the adjustment does is make the comparison fair: a nominal return measured against a nominal return elsewhere is a like-for-like comparison, and a nominal return measured against a real return is not.
There are limits to what a single deflator can do. The consumer price index measures a basket of goods and services that no individual actually buys, and its composition changes over time. It is the standard deflator for this purpose and it is not a perfect measure of the change in the value of money. A reader who wants a different deflator — a producer index, a wage index, a gold price — will get a different real series from the same nominal one. The method is documented here so that the choice is visible rather than hidden.
The yearly returns page publishes the nominal series this table is built from, and the data sources page records the vintage of every series on the site.
Related reading
- ReturnsCalendar-year returns and the long-horizon compounding record.
- Yearly ReturnsOpen, high, low and close for each calendar year since 2010.
- DrawdownsPeak-to-trough declines and how long recovery took.
- Dollar-Cost AveragingWhat steady accumulation has produced over long horizons.
- ROI & CAGRTotal return and compound annual growth across holding periods.
- Risk & VolatilityHow Bitcoin's volatility compares with its own history.