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Bitcoin Data GuideBitcoin Reference

Returns & Performance

The strongest and weakest twelve-month windows

A twelve-month window is the shortest horizon this site publishes. Each one runs from a year-end close to the close a year later, so the extremes below are the best and worst single year-over-year moves in the record — a much shorter horizon than the four-year windows measured elsewhere.

2010-2025Source: Coinbase Exchange daily candles; Bitstamp and CoinDesk historical series for 2010-2014Each window runs from one year-end closing price to the close twelve months later, across the full record.

Windows measured

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Twelve-month windows measured

Strongest window

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Weakest window

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The two extremes

Two rows, one for each end of the distribution. The window column gives the start and end year of the twelve-month period, and the prices are the closing prices at each end. Because the observation grid is annual, each window is a single year-end step: the series covers 2010–2011 through 2024–2025, and consecutive windows do not overlap. The strongest twelve-month window and the strongest calendar year are different measurements of the same record, and the calendar version is published separately.

The strongest and weakest twelve-month Bitcoin returns, with the window, start and end prices and the return.
RankWindowStart priceEnd priceReturn
No records are available for this dataset.

2010-2025Source: Coinbase Exchange daily candles; Bitstamp and CoinDesk historical series for 2010-2014

Twelve-month windows. Each window runs from the close of one calendar year to the close of the following calendar year, using the curated year-end close series. The observation grid is annual, so a twelve-month window is a single year-end step and the series covers 2010–2011 through 2024–2025; consecutive windows do not overlap. The 2010–2011 window rests on the thinly traded early market, where the year-end figures are widely cited reference points rather than exchange settlement prices. The calendar-year version of the same record is published on the best and worst years page.

What the extremes tell you, and what they do not

The strongest window is the best twelve months a holder could have had by buying at one year-end close and selling exactly a year later. It is a real outcome, and it is also a maximum taken over every twelve-month window in the record, which means it is a selection from a distribution rather than a typical result. Quoting it as though it were representative is the same error as quoting the best day in a year's trading as though it were the year's return.

The weakest window is the more useful of the two for a reader thinking about risk. It describes the worst twelve-month outcome in the record, which is the figure a holder should be prepared to endure rather than the figure they should hope for. A plan that survives the weakest window is a plan that survives the historical range; a plan built around the strongest window is a plan built around a maximum.

Both figures share the limitation of every historical extreme: they are drawn from a record that has not yet contained the worst case. The weakest window in this table is the weakest so far, and there is no mechanism that prevents a future window from being weaker. The table is a description of the range that has occurred, and the drawdown record describes the same downside in a different way. The rolling four-year returns page measures the same record over a four-year window instead of a twelve-month one, so it answers a different question: what a longer holding period produced, rather than what the best and worst single years did.

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