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Bitcoin Data GuideBitcoin Reference

Cycles & Supply

Issuance and supply growth over time

Bitcoin's annual issuance has fallen at every halving, and the rate at which the supply grows has fallen faster still. This page sets out both figures for every epoch, and explains why issuance and inflation are not the same measurement.

2009-2024Source: Bitcoin block chain records; protocol subsidy scheduleAnnual issuance assumes 52,560 blocks per year at the ten-minute target.

First epoch issuance

2,628,000 BTC

Per year at the initial reward

Current issuance

2,628,000 BTC

Epoch 1

Current supply growth

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Annual issuance over circulating supply

Issuance and growth by epoch

The annual issuance column is the block reward multiplied by the 52,560 blocks the network targets in a year. The supply-growth column divides that figure by the supply already in circulation when the epoch began, which is the rate at which the existing stock is being diluted. The two columns fall together, but the growth rate falls faster, because the supply base it is measured against keeps growing while the issuance keeps halving.

Bitcoin issuance and supply growth by epoch, with the block reward, annual issuance, supply at the start of the epoch and the resulting growth rate.
EpochBeganBlock rewardAnnual issuanceSupply at startSupply growth
13 January 200950 BTC2,628,000 BTC—First epoch

2009-2024Source: Bitcoin block chain records; protocol subsidy schedule

Issuance is not inflation. Issuance is the number of new coins created in a period. Supply growth is that number divided by the coins already in circulation. The two are often used interchangeably in commentary, and they are not the same: the first epoch issued roughly 2.6 million coins a year against a supply that began at zero, while the current epoch issues a little over 160,000 against a supply approaching twenty million. The issuance figure has fallen by more than ninety per cent; the growth rate has fallen by more than ninety-nine. The growth rate is the one that describes dilution.

What the decline means, and what it does not

The supply-growth rate is the closest thing Bitcoin has to an inflation figure, and it has fallen below that of every major currency. That is a real property of the design and it is worth stating plainly. It is also worth being precise about what follows from it. A declining growth rate means the stock of bitcoin is becoming scarcer relative to its own history. It does not mean the price must rise, because the price is set by demand as well as supply, and the schedule says nothing about demand.

There is a second subtlety. The halving reduces issuance in steps rather than gradually, so the growth rate does not decline smoothly. It drops sharply at each halving and then drifts down within the epoch as the supply base grows. A reader looking at a chart of supply growth will see a staircase rather than a slope, and the steps are the halvings. The halving history page documents the events that produce the steps.

The final consideration is the one most often overlooked. As issuance approaches zero, miners will depend increasingly on transaction fees rather than the block reward. Whether fee revenue can sustain the network's security budget is an open question, and it is not one this page can answer. What the table shows is the schedule as written; what happens to miner economics as the subsidy fades is a matter of projection rather than record. The supply schedule page sets out the cumulative figures behind these rates.

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