On-Chain Analytics

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The spent output profit ratio compares the price at which each spent output was created with the price at which it was spent. A ratio above one is read as coins moving at a profit and below one as coins moving at a loss. The arithmetic is exact; the reading of it as holder behaviour is an inference.

Last reviewed 2026-09-21Source: Glassnode SOPR methodology; Bitcoin Core UTXO setNo figure is quoted here. The ratio depends on a price series for the moment each output was created, which is a choice.

Written by: The Bitcoin Data Guide editorial team
Reviewed by: Data review desk
Dates: Published 2026-09-21 · Last reviewed 2026-09-21

Fact

For each spent output the ledger records when it was created and when it was spent, and a price series supplies the market price at each of those moments.

Forecast

Reading a ratio above one as profit-taking and below one as capitulation is an interpretation of holder intent, which the ledger does not record.

The definition

Every output on the ledger carries the transaction that created it. When that output is later spent, the ledger records the moment of the spend as well. A price series supplies the market price at each of those two moments, so for any spent output it is possible to compare the price when it was created with the price when it was spent.

The spent output profit ratio aggregates that comparison across the outputs spent in a period. It divides the total value of the spent outputs at the price when they were spent by their total value at the price when they were created. A ratio above one means the spent coins moved at a higher price than they were acquired at; a ratio below one means they moved at a lower price.

The measure is usually presented as a series, and the interesting readings are the crossings of one. A sustained reading above one is offered as evidence that holders are realising gains; a dip below one is offered as evidence that holders are realising losses. Both readings are interpretations layered on top of an arithmetic ratio.

What is observed and what is inferred

What the ledger directly records is the creation and the spend of each output, and the quantity of coins in it. That is a fact about the chain. What the ratio adds is a price for each of those two moments, taken from a price series, and the assumption that the entity which received the output is the entity that spent it.

The inference is the step from "these coins moved at a higher price than they were acquired at" to "the holder sold at a profit". The ledger records the movement and not the motive. A coin that moves at a higher price may be sold, may be moved to a new wallet for security, or may be part of a custody migration, and the ratio cannot distinguish between those cases.

The ratio is therefore a statement about the price at which the spent supply last changed hands, given the price series used. It is a fact about the ledger and the price series together, and it is an inference about the behaviour of the people behind the outputs.

The assumptions it depends on

The ratio depends on a price series, and the choice of series matters. A metric built on one exchange's price will differ from one built on another's, and the difference is largest in the early years when the market was thin. The ratio also depends on a definition of which outputs count, and on how outputs whose creation price is unknown or disputed are treated.

Where the ratio is computed per entity rather than per address, it depends on address clustering: the heuristics that decide which addresses belong to the same owner. Those heuristics rest on assumptions about how wallets construct transactions — that inputs spent together share an owner, that change returns to the sender — and a careful wallet design can defeat them. Entity labelling, which attaches a name to a cluster, is a further inference on top of the clustering, and a mislabel propagates into every metric built on it.

The most common distortion is internal shuffling. When an exchange or a custodian moves coins between its own wallets, the outputs are spent and recreated, and the ratio records a movement that reflects an operational decision rather than a change in holder behaviour. A large reshuffle can dominate the series for a period. The tracing page sets out the clustering heuristics in full, and the limits of blockchain analysis page explains why a cluster is an inference rather than a fact.

Sources and references

The description of the ratio and its construction is taken from the published methodology of the providers that compute it, and from the ledger structure it reads.

The metric and its methodology. Glassnode, Spent Output Profit Ratio: documents the definition, the price series and the output treatment.
The output model the ratio reads. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Developer Guide — Transactions: describes how outputs are created and spent.
The attribution assumptions behind ledger metrics. Meiklejohn et al., A Fistful of Bitcoins: characterises the clustering assumptions that entity-level metrics depend on.

Sources

Glassnode SOPR methodology: Documents the ratio's definition, the price series used and the treatment of spent outputs.
Bitcoin Developer Guide — Transactions: Describes how outputs are created and spent, which is what the ratio reads.
A Fistful of Bitcoins: Characterises the address clustering and attribution assumptions that ledger metrics depend on.