On-Chain Analytics

The Puell Multiple

The Puell multiple divides the daily value of newly issued coins by its own one-year average. It is offered as a measure of miner revenue pressure. The issuance is a fact about the ledger; the reading of it as miner stress depends on an attribution of coins to miners and on a choice of window.

Last reviewed 2026-09-21Source: Puell multiple methodology; Bitcoin Core block subsidy rulesNo figure is quoted here. The ratio depends on a price series and on a rolling one-year window, both of which are choices.

Written by: The Bitcoin Data Guide editorial team
Reviewed by: Data review desk
Dates: Published 2026-09-21 · Last reviewed 2026-09-21

Fact

The ledger records the block subsidy and the transaction fees in every block, so the quantity of newly issued coins is directly computable.

Forecast

Reading a low multiple as miner capitulation and a high one as miner profitability is an interpretation of miner behaviour that the issuance data alone does not establish.

How the ratio is built

The measure begins with the coins issued each day: the block subsidy plus the transaction fees collected in the blocks mined that day. A price series values those coins in currency terms, giving a daily issuance value. The ratio divides that value by its own average over the past year.

A reading above one means miners are receiving more than they usually do, which is interpreted as a period of high revenue. A reading below one means they are receiving less, which is interpreted as a period of pressure. The comparison is relative to the miners' own history rather than to an absolute threshold, which is the design's attempt to account for the fact that the quantity of coins issued halves on a fixed schedule.

The ratio is usually presented as a series with bands, and the interesting readings are the extremes. A sustained low reading is offered as evidence that miners are under pressure; a sustained high reading is offered as evidence that they are comfortable.

What is observed and what is inferred

What the ledger directly records is the block subsidy and the transaction fees in every block, and therefore the quantity of coins issued each day. That is a fact about the chain. The ratio adds a price for those coins, taken from a price series, and a one-year window for the average.

The inference is the step from "miners received less than usual" to "miners are under pressure and may sell". The ledger records the issuance and not the economics of the miners who receive it. A miner with low costs can be profitable at a reading that would distress a miner with high costs, and the ratio cannot see the cost side at all.

The ratio is therefore a statement about the value of daily issuance relative to its own recent history, given the price series used. It is a fact about the ledger and the price series together, and it is an inference about the behaviour of miners.

The assumptions it depends on

The ratio depends on a price series, and the choice of series matters. It also depends on a choice of window: a one-year average is a convention, and a different window produces a different reading from the same data. The window is long enough to smooth daily noise and short enough to lag a regime change, and both properties are choices rather than facts.

Where the ratio is extended to miner selling, it depends on miner address attribution: the identification of the addresses that receive block subsidies. That attribution is more reliable than exchange attribution, because the subsidy is paid to a known output in each block, but it still depends on clustering the addresses a miner controls. A miner that pays out through a pool or a custodial service breaks the attribution, and a mislabel propagates into the metric.

The most common distortion is the growth of fee revenue. As the subsidy halves, transaction fees become a larger share of miner revenue, and a fee spike can move the ratio for reasons that have nothing to do with the issuance schedule. The miner position index page covers the related outflow measure, and the limits of blockchain analysis page explains why a cluster is an inference rather than a fact.

Sources and references

The description of the ratio and its construction is taken from the published methodology of the providers that compute it, and from the issuance schedule it reads.

The metric and its methodology. Glassnode, Puell Multiple: documents the ratio, the window and the issuance definition.
The issuance schedule the ratio reads. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Developer Guide — Block Chain: describes the block subsidy and the halving schedule.
The attribution assumptions behind ledger metrics. Meiklejohn et al., A Fistful of Bitcoins: characterises the clustering assumptions that entity-level metrics depend on.

Sources

Puell multiple methodology: Documents the ratio of daily issuance value to its one-year average and the window used.
Bitcoin Developer Guide — Block Chain: Describes the block subsidy and the issuance schedule the ratio reads.
A Fistful of Bitcoins: Characterises the address clustering and attribution assumptions that ledger metrics depend on.