Research briefing
Drawdown recovery durations: the deepest declines took two to three years
- Written by
- The Bitcoin Data Guide editorial team
- Reviewed by
- Data review desk
- Dates
- Published 31 August 2026
Fact
Every figure in this briefing is drawn from the site's canonical dataset as it stood on 31 August 2026.
Forecast
Any forward-looking framing in this note is interpretation, not a measured outcome, and is labelled as such.
What changed since the previous briefing
This note follows Year-end market capitalisation is an annual observation, not a daily series, filed on 31 July 2026. The sections below record what moved in the data or the research between the two dates.
How recovery is measured
A drawdown is measured peak to trough and is only complete when a new peak is reached. The recovery duration runs from the trough back to the prior peak, and the peak-to-peak figure is the decline and the recovery added together. Dates are calendar dates, so the day counts include the endpoints of each leg.
The record
The 2011 bubble fell about 93.75 per cent from its June 2011 peak and regained that peak in early 2013. The 2013 to 2015 bear fell about 85.04 per cent and recovered in January 2017. The 2017 to 2018 bear fell about 83.89 per cent and recovered in December 2020. The 2021 to 2022 bear fell about 77.50 per cent and recovered in March 2024.
The open episode
The late-2025 correction fell about 36.13 per cent from its October 2025 peak to its November 2025 trough. The prior peak had not been regained at the time of compilation, so its recovery date and recovery days are null rather than estimated.
Datasets this briefing draws on
- drawdowns
- market-extremes
Sources
- drawdowns
- A curated dataset this briefing draws on.
- market-extremes
- A curated dataset this briefing draws on.